agriculture drought risk in the cities of kermanshah province

agricultural drought has resulted in great damage to iran in recent years and it is crucial to cope with this adversity through logical management. one attempt in this regard is to compare affected sites and prioritize them for action plans. this paper develops a methodology for agricultural drought risk analysis based on rain-fed wheat data from kermanshah province and employs it to compare affected cities in the province. two models were developed using regression and anfis methods to estimate crop yield using drought indices as inputs. the results showed better performance for the anfis model using spi and z-index as inputs. a monte carlo simulation was applied to obtain the yield probability distribution for drought risk analysis within the cities. it was shown that the cities of hersin and songhor have the highest and lowest risk, respectively, when combating drought.